Overview : From the outset of the campaign George W. Bush was seen to have an edge in Florida.  His brother Jeb served as governor.  Republicans controlled not only the governor's office, but both houses of the state legislature and the congressional delegation.  However, in 1996 Clinton/Gore had won Florida by a bit more than 300,000 votes.  In 1976 another Southerner, Jimmy Carter, had won.  Al Gore's state director Marcus Jadotte thought early on that the state was winnable, and the addition of Joe Lieberman to the ticket encouraged him further, as it would make it more difficult for Bush to make inroads among the state's Jewish voters.  Lieberman ended up making ten trips to the state.  Meanwhile, Jeb Bush did not play an overly active role on behalf of his brother during the campaign¹, which prompted occasional comment.

Social Security and Medicare were major issues in a state with almost 2.4 million people aged 65 or older (18.3% of the population compared to 12.6% nationally).  Whether it was Vice President Gore speaking on "Medicare at a Crossroads" in St. Petersburg on Sept. 25 or Governor Bush holding a discussion on seniors' health care in Orlando on Sept. 12, the candidates and their campaigns wooed seniors.  Gore state director Jadotte said after the campaign that a major objective was to "develop and maintain an advantage on Social Security."  Each side also accused the other of using fear tactics.  Automated phone calls from the Bush campaign in the latter part of October warned against scare tactics.  Jadotte pointed to independent expenditure TV ads (1, 2, 3) run in the last week in the Tampa-St. Petersburg market that were effective in scaring seniors and erasing Gore's advantage.

The Elián González saga hurt Gore among Cuban-Americans, a largely Republican voting bloc concentrated in Miami-Dade county.  This seven-month soap opera began with Elián's arrival in November 1999.  On March 30, 2000 Gore broke with the administration's position.  He issued a statement saying that the case should be treated as a custody matter, in family court rather than in federal courts, and he announced his support for legislation to make Elián a permanent resident.  Gore's position was seen as pandering for Cuban-American votes, which was somewhat puzzling since this group tends to vote strongly Republican.  In any event, Gore's stance drew widespread criticism, even from Democrats.  Cartoonists had a field day.  From Gore's point of view, worse was to come.  On April 22, INS agents staged the dramatic raid on the Miami home of Elian's relatives and secured the boy.  Images of the terrified six-year old boy, most notably Al Diaz's searing photo of the boy and the gun-pointing federal agent, dominated the news.  Finally, on June 29 the six-year old Elián was returned to Cuba.  Four months later, on Election Day, Cuban-Americans turned out in huge numbers, voting even more strongly than usual for Republicans. "It hurt us a lot in Dade County," Gore state director Marcus Jadotte said.

Gore/Lieberman carried Miami-Dade County by 6.3 percentage points or 39,275 votes (328,808 votes to 289,533 for Bush/Cheney) In 1996, Clinton/Gore carried Miami-Dade by 19.5 percentage points or 107,744 votes (317,378 votes to 209,634 for Dole/Kemp)

At the same time, Gore achieved record support among African-Americans.²  One factor was the political environment in the state.  Gov. Jeb Bush's "One Florida Initiative," announced in November 1999, undid affirmative action in university admissions and state contracts.  State Rep. Tony Hill (D-Jacksonville) and State Sen. Kendrick Meek (D-Miami) sought a meeting with the the governor, but were referred to the lieutenant governor; not finding satisfaction there, they staged a sit-in.  There was a big march in Tallahassee on March 7, and, more significantly, the two launched an "Arrive with Five" voter registration drive aimed at women, African-Americans and Hispanics.  A second major factor was the contrast between the two candidates, what Gore's state director Marcus Jadotte termed, "Bush's lack of credibility in the community and Gore's strong position in the community."  Finally, at the national level, Gore campaign manager Donna Brazile placed a major emphasis on getting out the Democratic base vote, including African-Americans.

Bush had a significant edge in the television campaign.  More presidential ads ran in Florida than in any other state.  The Brennan Center for Justice estimated that from June 1 to November 7, the campaigns, parties and supportive interest groups spent $24.4 million on television advertising in the presidential race in Florida.  Although the Gore campaign makes the case that it ran a more efficient and smarter television ad campaign, Bush and allies had a spending edge of $4.4 million.  According to the Campaign Media Analysis Group Bush/RNC ran 42% more ads than did Gore/DNC.   And, at least in the Tampa market, a couple of interest groups ran ads attacking Gore.  Meanwhile, organizations such as the Sierra Club and Planned Parenthood, which entered into the fray in battleground states such as Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, largely bypassed Florida.  The Brennan Center reported that "Gore enjoyed nearly no independent TV ad spending on his behalf anywhere in Florida."

With Republicans drawing support in rural counties and Democrats having a base in the "Big Three" South East counties of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, the campaigns focused much attention on reaching persuadable voters in Central Florida.  Thus there was considerable activity in the counties along highway I-4, which runs from Tampa in the West through Orlando to Daytona Beach in the East.  This focus on Central Florida is not new; in 1992 Gov. Clinton and Sen. Al Gore did not wage an all-out campaign in Florida, but in early October they did do a "On the Road...To Change America" bus tour, travelling along part of I-4 from Daytona Beach to Orlando then heading Ocala and Gainesville.

Eight years later, Gov. Bush's final campaign event in Florida was a rally on Nov. 5 in Orlando; on his previous visit to the state on Oct. 24-25 he had done a bus tour across Central Florida with brother Jeb Bush and Sen. John McCain.  Vice President Gore made two trips to Tampa in the last week of the campaign: he held a rally in a park there on Nov. 1, and, in his final events on the trail before flying off to Nashville, he visited the local campaign headquarters, a cancer center, and a bakery very early on the morning of Election Day.

Counties Along I-4 Bush Gore Others Total Hillsborough 180,760 (50.17) 169,557 (47.06) 9,978 (2.77) 360,295 Polk   90,295 (53.55)   75,200 (44.60) 3,112 (1.85) 168,607 Orange 134,517 (48.02) 140,220 (50.06) 5,388 (1.92) 280,125 Osceola   26,212 (47.09)   28,181 (50.63) 1,235 (2.22)   55,658 Seminole   75,677 (54.98)   59,174 (42.99) 2,783 (2.02) 137,634 Volusia   82,357 (44.84)   97,304 (52.98) 3,992 (2.17) 183,653 Note: Two counties adjacent to Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas, were also close:

Pasco   68,582 (48.05)   69,564 (48.74) 4,585 (3.21) 142,731 Pinellas 184,825 (46.41) 200,630 (50.38) 13,017(3.27) 398,202

"The race came down to I-4 in a lot of ways."

Hillsborough County went narrowly to Bush, although Gore carried neighboring Pinellas and Pasco Counties.  At the same time, Gore was the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Orange County since Franklin Delano Roosevelt.  Significant demographic changes have occured in this area over the past decade including increases in the numbers of Puerto Ricans and of  low- and middle-income people.

Note.
1.  After the campaign, Jeb Bush was instrumental in mobilizing Florida's top lawyers for the Bush cause.
2.  According to an examination of Florida's active voter file by the Washington Times (July 11, 2001), 10.0 percent (610,616 of 6,086,109) of Floridians who voted in the Nov. 7, 2000 election were African-American, compared to 9.50 percent in 1996 (517,203 of 5,444,245).  In 2000, African-Americans accounted for 10.7 percent of the state's registered voters (934,261 of 8,752,717) compared to 10.5 percent in 1996 (845,179 of 8,077,877).

Nader
During the fall, Ralph Nader visited Florida on Oct. 12-13 and Nov. 4.  On Oct. 12 he spoke at the University of North Florida in Jacksonville, the University of Florida in Gainesville, and at an evening rally at Mahaffey Theater in St. Petersburg; on Oct. 13 he held a news conference at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Tampa. On Nov. 4 he held a press conference and rally at Radisson Mart Plaza and Convention Center in Miami.

The Nader campaign spurred the growth of the Greens in Florida.  By Fall 2000 there were 23 county organizations, compared to a handful of active counties back in April.  In late August and early September Greens focused most of their efforts on getting Nader into the debates.  Nader state coordinator Alan Kobrin was convinced that if Nader debated Bush and Gore "there would be a tremendous change in public sentiment."  Greens worked with Reform Party members and Libertarians to open up the debates, forming an Open the Debates Coalition.  On Sept. 23 the coalition sponsored an "Open the Debates--Let Freedom Ring" rally at the Torch of Friendship in downtown Miami.  About a hundred people showed up.  Kobrin said Greens had a hard time "finding media space."  "It was difficult to get any material published," he said.  Only when the media had pigeonholed Nader into a "spoiler role" and vote swapping became a story did reporters begin writing articles.  Summing up, Kobrin observed after the election, "We were green at being political."  For example, Nader had made it one of his goals to attract support from nonvoters.  "We didn't quite know how to go about it," Kobrin said.  "Where do you find these people?" he asked.

All told, Nader finished with 97,488 votes (1.63%).  His strongest showing was in Alachua County (Gainesville) where he obtained 3.76% of the vote.  He obtained between 2- and 3-percent in Pinellas, Monroe and St. Johns counties.

Nader State Coordinator: Alan Kobrin of Miami
Kobrin was the only paid Nader staffer in the state; he started in late Aug./early Sept. after coordinating Green efforts in Miami-Dade.  Kobrin brought varied experience to the position: he served in the Peace Corps; spent years doing photography and teaching in South America; did graduate school studies in visual anthropology; taught instructional technology at Florida International University for nine years (he led opposition to the Gulf War at the University); and was active in the Florida Coalition for Peace and Justice, which opposed the 1997 launch of the Cassini space probe.

Buchanan
Pat Buchanan spoke at Flagler College in St. Augustine on Sept. 25.  On Oct. 19 he made a three-city tour, unveiling his new television ad in Tampa and Orlando and speaking to a big crowd at the University of Florida in Gainesville.  On Nov. 2 he visited Tallahassee where he was the featured speaker for the Capitol Tiger Bay Club at Leon Civic Center.

On Aug. 5, 2000, the Florida Reform Party held competing conventions; the established party met in Tampa, while Buchanan supporters gathered in Gainesville.  After the dueling national Reform Party conventions in Long Beach, Calif. concluded a week later, Florida's Division of Elections was unable to determine the Reform Party nominee.  Buchanan forces filed suit in mid-September to have him appear on the ballot as the Reform Party nominee.  A hearing was to have been held in Tallahassee before Circuit Judge Terry Lewis, but the two sides reached an agreement on Oct. 2 wherein Buchanan appeared on the Reform Party line.

Buchanan State Coordinator: Jim McConnell of Gainesville
Retired U.S. Army Colonel.

Browne
Harry Browne campaigned in Florida for six days in early September, Sept. 3-8.  He arrived at Fort Lauderdale airport on Sept. 3.  Each day was filled with the daily round of interviews followed by an evening rally.  The rallies were in Miami on Sept. 3, at the Sheraton Hotel in West Palm Beach on Sept. 4, in Orlando on Sept. 5, at the Sheraton Suites Hotel in Tampa on Sept. 6, in Tallahassee on Sept. 7, and at the Marriott Hotel in Jacksonville on Sept. 8; he left the state the morning of Sept. 9.

Hagelin
Dr. John Hagelin spoke at University of South Florida's St. Petersburg campus on the evening of Oct. 23 and at the  Universalist Church of Clearwater on the evening of Oct. 24.
 
 

Copyright 2000, 2001  Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action.